A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Wisdom of Crowds Phenomenon in Aggregating Expert Judgment

Research has shown that aggregation of independent expert judgments significantly improves the quality of forecasts as compared to individual expert forecasts. This “wisdom of crowds” (WOC) has sparked substantial interest. However, previous studies on strengths and weaknesses of aggregation algorithms have been restricted by limited empirical data and analytical complexity. Based on a comprehensive analysis of existing knowledge on WOC and aggregation algorithms, this paper describes the design and implementation of a static stochastic simulation model to emulate WOC scenarios with a wide range of parameters. The model has been thoroughly evaluated: the assumptions are validated against propositions derived from literature, and the model has a computational representation. The applicability of the model is demonstrated by investigating aggregation algorithm behavior on a detailed level, by assessing aggregation algorithm performance, and by exploring previously undiscovered suppositions on WOC. The simulation model helps expand the understanding of WOC, where previous research was restricted. Additionally, it gives directions for developing aggregation algorithms and contributes to a general understanding of the WOC phenomenon

The biggest business process management problems to solve before we die

It may be tempting for researchers to stick to incremental extensions of their current work to plan future research activities. Yet there is also merit in realizing the grand challenges in one’s field. This paper presents an overview of the nine major research problems for the Business Process Management discipline. These challenges have been collected by an open call to the community, discussed and refined in a workshop setting, and described here in detail, including a motivation why these problems are worth investigating. This overview may serve the purpose of inspiring both novice and advanced scholars who are interested in the radical new ideas for the analysis, design, and management of work processes using information technology

The biggest business process management problems to solve before we die

It may be tempting for researchers to stick to incremental extensions of their current work to plan future research activities. Yet there is also merit in realizing the grand challenges in one's field. This paper presents an overview of the nine major research problems for the Business Process Management discipline. These challenges have been collected by an open call to the community, discussed and refined in a workshop setting, and described here in detail, including a motivation why these problems are worth investigating. This overview may serve the purpose of inspiring both novice and advanced scholars who are interested in the radical new ideas for the analysis, design, and management of work processes using information technology

Urocortin-1 within the Centrally-Projecting Edinger-Westphal Nucleus Is Critical for Ethanol Preference

Converging lines of evidence point to the involvement of neurons of the centrally projecting Edinger-Westphal nucleus (EWcp) containing the neuropeptide Urocortin-1 (Ucn1) in excessive ethanol (EtOH) intake and EtOH sensitivity. Here, we expanded these previous findings by using a continuous-access, two-bottle choice drinking paradigm (3%, 6%, and 10% EtOH vs. tap water) to compare EtOH intake and EtOH preference in Ucn1 genetic knockout (KO) and wild-type (WT) mice. Based on previous studies demonstrating that electrolytic lesion of the EWcp attenuated EtOH intake and preference in high-drinking C57BL/6J mice, we also set out to determine whether EWcp lesion would differentially alter EtOH consumption in Ucn1 KO and WT mice. Finally, we implemented well-established place conditioning procedures in KO and WT mice to determine whether Ucn1 and the corticotropin-releasing factor type-2 receptor (CRF-R2) were involved in the rewarding and aversive effects of EtOH (2 g/kg, i.p.). Results from these studies revealed that (1) genetic deletion of Ucn1 dampened EtOH preference only in mice with an intact EWcp, but not in mice that received lesion of the EWcp, (2) lesion of the EWcp dampened EtOH intake in Ucn1 KO and WT mice, but dampened EtOH preference only in WT mice expressing Ucn1, and (3) genetic deletion of Ucn1 or CRF-R2 abolished the conditioned rewarding effects of EtOH, but deletion of Ucn1 had no effect on the conditioned aversive effects of EtOH. The current findings provide strong support for the hypothesis that EWcp-Ucn1 neurons play an important role in EtOH intake, preference, and reward

Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy (3rd edition)

In 2008 we published the first set of guidelines for standardizing research in autophagy. Since then, research on this topic has continued to accelerate, and many new scientists have entered the field. Our knowledge base and relevant new technologies have also been expanding. Accordingly, it is important to update these guidelines for monitoring autophagy in different organisms. Various reviews have described the range of assays that have been used for this purpose. Nevertheless, there continues to be confusion regarding acceptable methods to measure autophagy, especially in multicellular eukaryotes. For example, a key point that needs to be emphasized is that there is a difference between measurements that monitor the numbers or volume of autophagic elements (e.g., autophagosomes or autolysosomes) at any stage of the autophagic process versus those that measure fl ux through the autophagy pathway (i.e., the complete process including the amount and rate of cargo sequestered and degraded). In particular, a block in macroautophagy that results in autophagosome accumulation must be differentiated from stimuli that increase autophagic activity, defi ned as increased autophagy induction coupled with increased delivery to, and degradation within, lysosomes (inmost higher eukaryotes and some protists such as Dictyostelium ) or the vacuole (in plants and fungi). In other words, it is especially important that investigators new to the fi eld understand that the appearance of more autophagosomes does not necessarily equate with more autophagy. In fact, in many cases, autophagosomes accumulate because of a block in trafficking to lysosomes without a concomitant change in autophagosome biogenesis, whereas an increase in autolysosomes may reflect a reduction in degradative activity. It is worth emphasizing here that lysosomal digestion is a stage of autophagy and evaluating its competence is a crucial part of the evaluation of autophagic flux, or complete autophagy. Here, we present a set of guidelines for the selection and interpretation of methods for use by investigators who aim to examine macroautophagy and related processes, as well as for reviewers who need to provide realistic and reasonable critiques of papers that are focused on these processes. These guidelines are not meant to be a formulaic set of rules, because the appropriate assays depend in part on the question being asked and the system being used. In addition, we emphasize that no individual assay is guaranteed to be the most appropriate one in every situation, and we strongly recommend the use of multiple assays to monitor autophagy. Along these lines, because of the potential for pleiotropic effects due to blocking autophagy through genetic manipulation it is imperative to delete or knock down more than one autophagy-related gene. In addition, some individual Atg proteins, or groups of proteins, are involved in other cellular pathways so not all Atg proteins can be used as a specific marker for an autophagic process. In these guidelines, we consider these various methods of assessing autophagy and what information can, or cannot, be obtained from them. Finally, by discussing the merits and limits of particular autophagy assays, we hope to encourage technical innovation in the field

Customers Like It Hot and Fast – Incorporating Customer Effects into the Meal Delivery Process

Delivering meal orders as fast as possible and the meal itself as hot as possible are the most important factorsin the meal delivery process as they drive customer satisfaction. High customer satisfaction leads to loyal customers, implying a higher rate of recurring orders, in return. Existing approaches tackle the meal delivery process by taking a short-term perspective on a single optimization criterion (e.g. minimizing delivery costs). Still missing is an alternative perspective that also incorporates the long-term value contribution of individual customers. By neglecting this customer-centric perspective, frequent out-of-town located ordering customers might be disadvantaged as they are repeatedly served at the end of the route. To close this research gap, we propose a decision model (C2RG) that incorporates a long-term customer-centric view. Depending on different short- and long-term preferences, the model can be appropriately customized. We observe a significant increase in a long-term factor, such as customer fairness by only slightly reducing short-term route performance. We instantiated a software prototype of the C2RG and evaluated it with real-world data of a local platform-to-consumer delivery service located in Germany. The results show the importance of considering a customer-centric long-term perspective in the meal delivery process

Using Blockchain to Coordinate Federal Processes: The Case of Germany's Federal Office for Migration and Refugees

(a)Situation faced: The German asylum procedure requires close cooperation and information exchange between various authorities at the municipal, state, and federal levels. Federal separation of competencies inhibits the delegation of process governance to a central authority such as the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF). This separation also leads to regional differences as federal laws govern the procedure's general steps, whereas state laws govern implementation. Moreover, existing solutions for cross-organizational collaboration are limited in terms of flexibility, security, and data quality. As a result, the exchange of certain data on asylum procedures still occurs using Excel spreadsheets and e-mails.(b)Action taken: Against this backdrop, the BAMF explored technological options that would support the decentralized governance of the asylum procedure. After a preliminary evaluation, the BAMF decided to explore a solution based on blockchain technology. Building upon a successful proof of concept, the BAMF initiated a pilot project with Saxony's central immigration authority. This project aims to develop a blockchain solution that supports the coordination of asylum procedures and can be easily adapted to local differences and functional requirements.(c)Results achieved: The use of the blockchain solution allows for efficient, secure, and timely distribution of status information. It supports communication and improves coordination between authorities. Despite an apparent conflict between blockchain principles and data privacy requirements, the BAMF's design complies with relevant regulation (notably the GDPR). As a first-of-its-kind project, it outlines best practices and provides valuable insights into opportunities and challenges arising from the use of blockchain in the public sector.(d)Lessons learned: The BAMF's case demonstrates that blockchain solutions can be promising alternatives when the delegation of process governance to a central party is not desirable and when federal principles of organization are to be reflected technologically. However, blockchain projects require special attention to managing know-how and capabilities, software development activities, stakeholders, the regulatory context, and cross-organizational governance